Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42534247›Full record

ArticleDepression and anxiety2026

Machine Learning Model for Predicting Suicide Risks Among Patients With Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Who Received Opioids.

Shu Huang, Amie J Goodin, Jill A Star, Serena Jingchuan Guo, Jiang Bian, Jie Xu, Tianze Jiao

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Depression and anxiety, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Shu HuangDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2825-9180
Amie J GoodinDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-8720
Jill A StarDepartment of Psychiatry, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-6781
Serena Jingchuan GuoDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9799-2592
Jiang BianDepartment of Biostatistics and Health Data Science, School of Medicine, Indiana University, Indianapolis 46202, Indiana, USA, iu.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2238-5429
Jie XuDepartment of Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5291-5198
Tianze JiaoDepartment of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611, Florida, USA, ufl.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2608-616X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The cooccurrence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and opioid use heightens suicide risk. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based suicide prediction model (SPM) to identify PTSD patients prescribed opioids who are at risk of suicide within 6-month prediction intervals. Methods: Using 2016-21 OneFlorida+ data, we compared the predictive performance of multiple models, including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, gradient boosting machines (GBMs), random forest (RF), and deep neural networks (DNNs). The best-performing SPM was selected to predict 6-month suicide risks among adult PTSD patients who received opioids. The index date was the first day when both an opioid prescription and a PTSD diagnosis occurred within 180 days. We divided the 2016-18 cohort into training and internal validation datasets (2:1 ratio), applying machine learning models to the training dataset to predict suicide-related outcomes. We evaluated model prediction performance using various metrics on internal (2016-18) and external (2019-21) validation cohorts. Results: Among 5578 patients (age = 38.1 ± 11.1, female = 83.2%) in the 2016-18 cohort, 709 (12.7%) patients had at least one suicide-related outcome during follow-up. The final RF model selected 271/299 covariates, with C-statistics, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and precision being 83.6% (81.7%-85.9%), 86.2% (85.2%-87.1%), 65.0% (59.8%-70.1%), 87.6% (86.7%-88.5%), and 26.6% (24.6%-28.8%), respectively. We classified intervals into 10 suicide-risk subgroups based on the predicted probabilities, with 79.2% of suicide intervals captured in the top 3 decile subgroups. We observed similar findings in the 2019-21 cohort ( Conclusions: Our SPM performed well in internal and external validations. It may serve as a feasible tool to identify patients at risk of suicide, helping prioritize preventive interventions, and enabling providers to allocate time and resources more efficiently to patients who may benefit from closer follow-up.

Indexed as

Analgesics, OpioidMachine LearningStress Disorders, Post-TraumaticSuicideAdultBoosting Machine Learning AlgorithmsClassification AlgorithmsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsRandom ForestRisk AssessmentAnalgesics, Opioidmachine learningopioidsposttraumatic stress disordersuicide prediction

Identifiers

PMID42534247
PMCPMC13420204

What Socratic holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.