Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42559362›Full record

ArticleGeoHealth2026

Increasing Urban Tree Canopy Associated With Reduced Mortality: A Longitudinal Analysis of Chicago Neighborhoods.

Harrison C Garcia, Peter M Graffy, Benjamin W Barrett, Maxime A Visa, Jenny Jia, Evan Mallen, Raed Mansour, Graham Briggs, Trent Ford, Donald J Wuebbles and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in GeoHealth, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Harrison C GarciaFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1970-6332
Peter M GraffyFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2156-7175
Benjamin W BarrettFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.
Maxime A VisaFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.
Jenny JiaFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.
Evan MallenUrban Climate Lab Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta GA USA.
Raed MansourDefusing Disasters Working Group Buffett Institute for Global Affairs Northwestern University Evanston IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8484-0730
Graham BriggsIllinois Department of Public Health Chicago IL USA.
Trent FordPrairie Research Institute University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Champaign IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2873-8520
Donald J WuebblesDepartment of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4496-9513
Norrina AllenFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.
Teresa H HortonDefusing Disasters Working Group Buffett Institute for Global Affairs Northwestern University Evanston IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3734-8065
Abel KhoFeinberg School of Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.
Daniel E HortonDefusing Disasters Working Group Buffett Institute for Global Affairs Northwestern University Evanston IL USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2065-4517

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Urban tree canopy is known to mitigate ambient heat and improve physical and mental health but the longitudinal interactions and impacts of tree canopy, temperature, and mortality are not well understood. Using high resolution tree canopy estimates, temperature, mortality, and demographic data from 2011 to 2021, we implemented negative binomial generalized estimating equations to model all-cause and disease-specific mortality based on tree canopy cover, year-to-year changes in tree canopy cover, and maximum temperature, adjusting for area-level demographics in Chicago, IL. We used K-means clustering to identify patterns of canopy, temperature, and mortality disparities across Chicago community areas. There were 220,711 decedents during the study period (115,974 male, 104,734 female; mean age at death: 69.4 ± 19.9 years). Existing canopy coverage was not statistically significantly associated with mortality (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.995, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.984-1.007). However, each year-to-year percent increase in canopy was associated with around a 10% reduction in mortality (IRR = 0.902, [0.871-0.935]) with significant associations for cause-specific cardiovascular (IRR = 0.908, [0.869-0.948]), mental health (IRR = 0.836, [0.784-0.892]), musculoskeletal (IRR = 0.907, [0.832-0.989]), and respiratory (IRR = 0.887, [0.833-0.945]) diseases. Cluster analysis identified that neighborhoods on Chicago's South and West sides were characterized by high temperatures, greater absolute canopy loss despite elevated baseline canopy levels, and increased mortality. Among the hottest neighborhoods, canopy-temperature interaction models demonstrated that areas experiencing larger year-to-year canopy losses had higher yearly mortality. Protecting tree canopy cover from losses over time, particularly in vulnerable areas with higher temperatures, may present a key opportunity to reduce mortality and mitigate impacts of climate change.

Identifiers

PMID42559362
PMCPMC13440163

What Socratic holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.