Evidence mapPaperPMID 42572918Full record

ArticleCPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology2026

A Systems Pharmacology Model of Aging Identifies Optimal Combination Therapies With Secondary Benefits on Weight Loss and Metabolic Health.

Igor Goryanin, Bob Damms, Irina Goryanin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Igor GoryaninIQANOVA Ltd, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8293-774X
Bob DammsIQANOVA Ltd, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4884-9431
Irina GoryaninIQANOVA Ltd, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2340-1113

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aging is a systems-level process linking metabolic dysfunction, inflammation, impaired repair, frailty, and multimorbidity, whereas existing pharmacological strategies usually optimize disease-specific endpoints such as weight loss or HbA1c rather than aging-related trajectories. We developed an SBML-compliant quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model in which aging is represented as a dynamic, pharmacologically modifiable endpoint. The model integrates four coupled layers: metabolic/pharmacodynamic responses to GLP-1 receptor agonism, SGLT2 inhibition, metformin and rapamycin; adverse-event dynamics; aging states including damage accumulation, repair capacity, frailty and biological age gap; and biomarker outputs including GDF15, cystatin C, leptin, adiponectin and estimated glucose disposal rate. The semaglutide submodel was calibrated against published STEP trial endpoints, and Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis, global sensitivity analysis, practical identifiability analysis and internal consistency checks were used to assess model behavior. The calibrated model reproduced semaglutide-associated weight loss, HbA1c reduction and transient nausea within pre-specified error benchmarks. Bayesian meta-analysis confirmed strong metabolic effects for semaglutide, moderate glycaemic effects for SGLT2 inhibitors and metformin, and a near-zero HbA1c effect for rapamycin. Sensitivity analysis revealed largely orthogonal metabolic and aging parameter spaces. Combination simulations identified two mechanistically distinct optima: GLP-1 receptor agonist plus SGLT2 inhibitor plus metformin for metabolic improvement, and GLP-1 receptor agonist plus SGLT2 inhibitor plus rapamycin for aging-related benefit. Metabolic optimisation and aging optimisation are therefore mechanistically distinct objectives that do not converge on the same drug combination. These predictions are hypothesis-generating and require external validation against independent longitudinal datasets and clinical safety evaluation before translation to treatment recommendations.

Indexed as

AgingModels, BiologicalWeight LossBayes TheoremDrug Therapy, CombinationGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsGlucagon-Like PeptidesGlycated HemoglobinHumansHypoglycemic AgentsMetforminNetwork PharmacologySemaglutideSirolimusSodium-Glucose Transporter 2 InhibitorsGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsGlucagon-Like PeptidesGlycated HemoglobinHypoglycemic AgentsMetforminSemaglutideSirolimusSodium-Glucose Transporter 2 InhibitorsagingBayesian meta‐analysiscombination therapyGLP‐1 receptor agonistsidentifiabilitymodel‐informed drug developmentquantitative systems pharmacologyrapamycinSBML

Identifiers

PMID42572918
PMCPMC13454951

What Socratic holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.