Evidence mapPaperPMID 42594089Full record

ArticlePLoS medicine2026

Retrofitting fiscal policies to reduce the double burden of malnutrition in Peru: A system dynamics modelling study.

Nora A Escher, Judite Gonçalves, Anibal Velasquez Valdivia, Paul Crosland, Luis Huicho, J Jaime Miranda, Christopher Millett, Paraskevi Seferidi

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Article in PLoS medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Nora A EscherPublic Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4242-6192
Judite GonçalvesPublic Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5563-9974
Anibal Velasquez ValdiviaFaculty of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5867-0937
Paul CroslandYouth Mental Health and Technology, Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Central Clinical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6445-7486
Luis HuichoDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5272-5885
J Jaime MirandaDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4738-5468
Christopher MillettPublic Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Paraskevi SeferidiPublic Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3966-3314

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPeru faces a double burden of malnutrition, characterised by the co-existence of overnutrition and undernutrition. Although several fiscal policies have been implemented to address nutrition challenges, these have been designed and implemented separately, limiting their potential for synergistic impact. This paper investigates the potential impact of retrofitting unhealthy food and beverage taxation for 'double-duty' action by allocating revenues towards welfare transfers and fruit and vegetable subsidies on overweight and stunting in Peru. METHODS AND

findingsWe developed a system dynamics model to simulate overweight and stunting in children and adults of reproductive age, using secondary data sources and published effect estimates. We modelled several fiscal policy scenarios, informed by WHO recommendations and Peru's policy landscape. We performed several tests to build confidence in the model. Fiscal policy scenarios can have beneficial effects on overweight compared to business-as-usual, mainly through the impact of additional unhealthy food and beverage taxes, which would reduce cumulative person-years lived with adult overweight between 2024 and 2040 by -58.6 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI] [-77.7, -37.9]) million, mainly among the richest. Reinvesting tax revenue to increase the amount of cash offered through Peru's existing conditional cash transfer could reduce cumulative person-years lived with child stunting by up to 876 thousand (95% UI [-1,139, -567]) by 2040, with 82% of these being among the poorest. This study relies on several assumptions regarding policy impacts and responses and does not incorporate cost-effectiveness analysis due to its exclusion of older age groups.

conclusionsRetrofitting unhealthy food and beverage taxation to reallocate revenue towards targeted welfare programmes, such as cash transfers, has substantial potential for 'double-duty' impacts on overnutrition and undernutrition in Peru.

Indexed as

MalnutritionNutrition PolicyTaxesAdultChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGrowth DisordersHumansModels, EconomicOverweightPeru

Identifiers

PMID42594089
PMCPMC13472416

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.