SynthesisEndocrinology, diabetes & metabolism2026
Weight Regain Trajectories After Discontinuation of Semaglutide or Tirzepatide: A Reconstructed Aggregate-Data Bayesian Longitudinal Meta-Analysis.
Synthesis in Endocrinology, diabetes & metabolism, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSemaglutide and tirzepatide produce substantial weight loss during treatment, but the trajectory of weight regain after discontinuation remains uncertain.
objectiveTo estimate post-discontinuation weight-regain trajectories and explore predictors of faster regain.
methodsWe used published timepoint-level aggregate data from studies evaluating weight change after discontinuation of semaglutide or tirzepatide to perform a Bayesian hierarchical longitudinal re-analysis. The model estimated weight loss at cessation, monthly regain rate, time to 50% regain, and time to return to baseline weight. Bayesian meta-regression examined medication type, magnitude of initial weight loss, and post-discontinuation behavioural or lifestyle support. Longer-term estimates assumed a constant linear regain rate.
resultsSix studies comprising 10 intervention arms and 1776 participants were included, with observed follow-up ranging from 4 to 52 weeks. Estimated weight loss at cessation was 15.35 kg (95% credible interval [CrI] 11.18-19.60), followed by regain of 1.04 kg/month (95% CrI 0.80-1.29). Based on the linear model, 50% of initial weight loss was projected to be regained by 7.50 months (95% CrI 5.05-10.57), with return to baseline weight by 15.00 months (95% CrI 10.10-21.13). Tirzepatide showed numerically faster regain than semaglutide in unadjusted analyses, but no clear independent drug-specific difference was evident after adjustment. Greater initial weight loss showed the strongest directional association with faster regain, although the credible interval included zero. Behavioural or lifestyle support was directionally associated with slower regain, but the estimate was imprecise.
conclusionsWeight regain after discontinuation of semaglutide or tirzepatide was rapid and clinically meaningful. Because estimates beyond 52 weeks were model-based extrapolations, they should be interpreted cautiously. Early monitoring and proactive maintenance planning may be warranted after treatment cessation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What Socratic holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the Socratic graph.