ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Temporal trends and developmental trajectories of physical fitness among university students: a 13-year accelerated longitudinal study.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: University represents a critical developmental stage during which physical fitness may undergo substantial changes. However, evidence regarding long-term physical fitness trajectories and cohort differences among university students remains limited, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study used annual physical fitness surveillance data collected from 2013 to 2025. Partial follow-up data from the 2012 enrollment cohort were additionally included to reconstruct developmental trajectories across university years using an accelerated longitudinal design. A total of 50,158 students contributing 143,292 observations were included. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted to assess temporal changes in physical fitness before and after 2020. Linear mixed-effects models were used to examine developmental trajectories and compare enrollment cohorts between 2012-2019 and 2020-2025. Additional BMI-stratified analyses were performed to explore heterogeneity in trajectory patterns. Results: Most physical fitness indicators showed continuous improvement during 2013-2019, whereas these improvements generally became attenuated after 2020. Developmental trajectories differed significantly between enrollment cohorts. Compared with the pre-2020 (2012-2019) cohorts, the post-2020 (2020-2025) cohorts generally demonstrated higher baseline levels for several indicators but weaker developmental trajectories across academic grades. BMI-stratified analyses further revealed substantial heterogeneity in developmental trajectories across BMI groups, particularly for endurance- and strength-related indicators. Conclusions: Physical fitness among university students showed substantial temporal changes between 2013 and 2025. Although the post-2020 cohorts demonstrated relatively higher baseline performance for several indicators, their subsequent developmental trajectories across university years were generally weaker than those of the pre-2020 cohorts. These findings highlight the importance of continuous physical fitness monitoring and targeted health promotion strategies tailored to different physical fitness components and BMI groups.
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