A Scoping Review of the Literature on Child and/or Adolescent Health Microsimulation Models.

backgroundMicrosimulation models can be used for diverse purposes such as forecasting and undertaking economic evaluations. A review of the literature of existing child and/or adolescent microsimulation models has yet to be undertaken. The aim of this scoping review was to retrieve, synthesise and critically appraise the literature of child and/or adolescent health microsimulation models.

methodsA scoping review was conducted using PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsyclNFO, EconLit and Scopus. Additional searches (snowballing, Google searches, searches of specific journals and websites) were also undertaken to complement database searches. Relevant data on microsimulation models were extracted, and the quality of models was assessed using the Quality Assessment Reporting for Microsimulation Models checklist. Evidence was synthesised by scope of model, type of model and health outcome examined.

resultsForty-eight relevant microsimulation models were found. Most (n = 33) were developed specifically for children and/or adolescents, but there were a few (n = 15) broader models that examined these populations. Many microsimulation models were developed for the USA (n = 14); several were focused on select health conditions, such as obesity/overweight, cancer and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Just over half (n = 27) of the models found were classified as medium quality models, while the remaining ones were deemed high quality (n = 21). Nonetheless, several models lacked validation and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty analyses and generalisability.

conclusionsThere are a substantial number of child and/or adolescent health microsimulation models. However, future research should focus on developing models on other prevalent child/adolescent health conditions (e.g. allergies, ADHD) and for low- and middle-income settings.