ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2026
Visceral adipose tissue and incident cardiovascular disease among individuals without diabetes: an analysis of 15 prospective cohorts from 7 countries in Latin America.
Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) may causally contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, evidence in Latin America is limited. Here, we evaluated the association between estimated VAT (eVAT) and incident CVD among individuals without diabetes and estimated its population-attributable fraction (PAF) using data from the Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC). Methods: We pooled data from 15 prospective cohorts across 7 countries (n = 23,097; 62% women [n = 14,383], median age 51 years). Baseline eVAT (in grams [g]) was estimated using the Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat (METS-VF) index, incorporating age, sex, an insulin resistance index, and waist-to-height ratio. The primary outcome was incident CVD events, including fatal and non-fatal outcomes. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR). PAF estimates used scenario-based eVAT quartile reductions. Findings: Over a median follow-up of 4 years (113,622 person-years), 436 participants (1.9%) experienced an incident CVD event (174 fatal; 262 non-fatal). Uniformly age- and sex-standardized incidence rates were 3.8 (95% CI: 3.5-4.2) per 1000 person-years. Each 100 g increase in eVAT was associated with a 4% higher CVD hazard (aHR 1.04, 1.03-1.06). Compared with Q1 (<735 g), those in Q3 (1069-1441 g) and Q4 (≥1441 g) had a higher CVD hazard (Q3 aHR: 1.78 [1.28-2.49]; Q4 aHR: 2.03 [1.48-2.79]; p-for-trend <0.001). Associations were stronger for non-fatal events. In PAF estimates, shifting individuals from Q4 to lower quartiles could prevent 8.8% (2.8%-14.7%) of CVD events over 10 years. Interpretation: Higher eVAT was associated with increased CVD risk in Latin America, supporting the view that modest VAT reductions could decrease regional CVD burden. Funding: CC-LAC was funded by the Wellcome Trust.
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