ArticleEchocardiography (Mount Kisco, N.Y.)2026
Development of a Preoperative Transthoracic Echocardiography-Based Nomogram for Predicting 1-Year Cardiovascular Events in End-Stage Renal Disease Kidney Transplant Recipients.
Article in Echocardiography (Mount Kisco, N.Y.), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundKidney transplantation (KT) is optimal therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), yet cardiovascular events (CVEs) are the top cause of morbidity and mortality in transplant recipients. We aimed to build a preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE)-based predictive model combined with clinical and laboratory indicators to stratify post-transplant cardiovascular risk.
methodsThis single-center cohort enrolled 547 ESRD patients receiving KT from 2021 to 2022. Preoperative TTE, clinical and lab data were collected, with 1-year post-transplant CVEs as the primary endpoint. LASSO and multivariate logistic regression screened independent risk factors; ROC, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) validated model performance.
resultsOverall 17.55% (96/547) patients developed 1-year CVEs. Interventricular septal thickness at end-diastole (IVSTd), pulmonary hypertension (PH), aortic valve calcification (AVC) and diabetes history were independent risk factors. The training set AUC reached 0.776 (sensitivity 61.8%, specificity 79.4%, 95%CI 0.711-0.841), and the testing set AUC was 0.749 (95%CI 0.618-0.880). Calibration curves showed favorable consistency, and DCA proved stable clinical net benefit within the 7%-68% threshold range.
conclusionsOne-year post-transplant CVE incidence remains high. IVSTd, PH, AVC and diabetes are independent predictors. This TTE-integrated model has reliable discrimination and clinical value for non-invasive cardiovascular risk stratification in KT candidates.
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