ArticleCurrent research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases2026
Global, regional, and national age-gender-specific trends, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort modelling for projections of the burden of leishmaniasis: A population-based ecological study.
Article in Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease transmitted by sandflies, continues to pose a significant public health challenge, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. This study aims to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of leishmaniasis, exploring trends, disparities, and future projections to inform and enhance public health strategies. Using the data from the Global Burden of Disease database, we analysed leishmaniasis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We calculated age-standardised rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to assess trends. The Kitagawa decomposition method was employed to quantify contributions of population ageing, population growth, and epidemiological changes. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project disease burden through 2036. Globally, the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) showed a slight increase from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC = 0.71%, 95% CI: 0.66-0.76%), while the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALY rate (ASDR) declined (ASIR EAPC = -0.51%, 95% CI: -1.09-0.05%; ASMR EAPC = -6.84%, 95% CI: -7.74 to -5.93%; ASDR EAPC = -5.17%, 95% CI: -5.99 to -4.33%). In 2021, there were 6.21 × 10
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