Markov models of SHAPE data improve secondary structure prediction.

RNA structure is a key determinant of RNA function and regulation. The coupling of chemical probing technologies, such as SHAPE, with deep sequencing has enabled large-scale experimental characterization of RNA structures in complex samples and under diverse conditions. Furthermore, probing data are often used to guide thermodynamics-based secondary structure prediction algorithms and have been shown to improve their accuracy. However, current algorithms treat these single-nucleotide measurements as statistically independent signals, inherently overlooking short-range dependencies in the data. Here, we show that discretized SHAPE data display context dependence within loop regions and within stem regions and we use Markov models to formally capture such dependencies. We then leverage Markov modeling in the classification of small structure motifs from their discretized SHAPE data signatures and subsequently integrate the classifying feature into the dynamic programming recursions that underlie computational RNA folding. Compared to state-of-the-art SHAPE-guided structure prediction methods, our Markov-informed framework improves prediction performance. Furthermore, we identify SHAPE signatures characteristic of highly stable hairpins, such as GAAA, GCAA, and UUCG tetraloops, and integrate these insights into the folding recursions to further improve predictions. Overall, the proposed framework provides a foundation for context-aware statistical modeling of SHAPE data, particularly in loop regions, where signal characterization has proven challenging due to high variance. This work further demonstrates that finer modeling of SHAPE data has the potential to push the limits of data-guided secondary structure prediction.